Why Your Judgement Often Suffers in Times of Uncertainty

There’s no shortage of uncertainty at the moment. What’s going to happen to the economy? When will our country fully open up, and if it does, will it be the same as before? Will there be a second or even a third wave of the virus? What’s going to happen in the US election? All this uncertainty makes for some difficult decision making. And that’s because uncertainty forces us to consider statistical probabilities. And most of us are surprisingly bad at statistics. And, to add to the difficulty, most of us don’t know that we suck at probabilities, mostly because while we have a terrific memory for the times when we were right, we fail to keep track of our many, many failed predictions. To make

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